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class="det_title_info"><h1>秋風(fēng)：房地產(chǎn)畸形繁榮，全因?qū)捤韶泿耪?/h1></div> <p>發(fā)布時(shí)間:<span>2020-06-19</span> 來(lái)源: <span><a href="http://m.91mayou.com/lishihuizuo/" class="lanmu">歷史回眸</a></span> 點(diǎn)擊：<span id="hits"></span> <span><a ><img style="vertical-align: middle; height:16px;" src="/images/wap.jpg" /></a></span></p> </div> <div id="zxxfnzaxv" class="det_content" id="zoom"> <p><script type="text/javascript">ok3w_ads("s004");</script></p> <div id="zxxfnzaxv" class=ggad><script type="text/javascript">ok3w_ads("s005");</script></div> <p>　　 </p><p>　　高房?jī)r(jià)再次成為眾矢之的，那么，是誰(shuí)制造了高房?jī)r(jià)？各方展開(kāi)了一場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)大戰(zhàn)，紛紛用自己的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)摘清自己，把責(zé)任推給別人。</p><p>　　國(guó)土資源部公布了全國(guó)620個(gè)調(diào)查項(xiàng)目的數(shù)據(jù)，其中北京的21個(gè)項(xiàng)目中，地價(jià)占房?jī)r(jià)的最高比例為51.36%，最低為14.33%，平均為25%。全國(guó)地價(jià)占房?jī)r(jià)的比例平均為23.2%。言外之意是，高房?jī)r(jià)是房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商制造的，是其瘋狂追逐利潤(rùn)的產(chǎn)物。</p><p>　　參加這620個(gè)房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目土地成本調(diào)查的中國(guó)地質(zhì)勘測(cè)規(guī)劃院地價(jià)所將這一意思說(shuō)得明明白白：開(kāi)發(fā)商的建安成本、管理成本、銷售成本最高不會(huì)超過(guò)30%，加之稅費(fèi)成本10%和平均土地成本23.2%，開(kāi)發(fā)商最終的直接利潤(rùn)應(yīng)該在40%左右，即便算上增值稅，流向政府的也不會(huì)超過(guò)40%。所以，房?jī)r(jià)之所以高，完全是因?yàn)殚_(kāi)發(fā)商心太黑。</p><p>　　開(kāi)發(fā)商卻不同意這種說(shuō)法。積極充當(dāng)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商代言人的任志強(qiáng)一直強(qiáng)調(diào)，房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商其實(shí)是在為政府打工。全國(guó)工商聯(lián)房地產(chǎn)商會(huì)調(diào)查顯示，地價(jià)房?jī)r(jià)比高達(dá)58.2%，認(rèn)為地價(jià)推高了房?jī)r(jià)。鄭州一位開(kāi)發(fā)商則通過(guò)央視公開(kāi)了一份房地產(chǎn)成本清單：樓面地價(jià)占到售價(jià)的40%，建安成本占30%。該開(kāi)發(fā)商特別強(qiáng)調(diào)，各級(jí)行政部門的稅費(fèi)占房?jī)r(jià)的20%，收費(fèi)項(xiàng)目至少30項(xiàng)，且存在重復(fù)征收、變相征收現(xiàn)象。結(jié)論是：房?jī)r(jià)之所以高，主要是因?yàn)檎濆X。</p><p>　　說(shuō)實(shí)在話，一個(gè)行業(yè)與政府如此公開(kāi)地以數(shù)據(jù)論證對(duì)方對(duì)一件大家都覺(jué)得不那么好的事情的責(zé)任，還是很新鮮的，也是一件好事。也許，隨著這場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)戰(zhàn)逐漸升級(jí)，人們當(dāng)能對(duì)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的政-商關(guān)系現(xiàn)狀有更清楚的認(rèn)識(shí)。</p><p>　　不過(guò)，要弄清誰(shuí)對(duì)高房?jī)r(jià)承擔(dān)責(zé)任，其實(shí)用不著如此大動(dòng)干戈。事實(shí)上，雙方如此引用數(shù)據(jù)，說(shuō)明雙方都沒(méi)有理解經(jīng)濟(jì)行為的內(nèi)在邏輯，沒(méi)有理解價(jià)格的形成機(jī)制。開(kāi)發(fā)商大談地價(jià)數(shù)據(jù)，隱含了這樣一個(gè)預(yù)設(shè)：房?jī)r(jià)是由生產(chǎn)它的成本(這其中很重要的一部分是地價(jià))決定的。政府揭露開(kāi)發(fā)商的利潤(rùn)率數(shù)據(jù)隱含了這樣的預(yù)設(shè)：利潤(rùn)可以決定房?jī)r(jià)，開(kāi)發(fā)商可以隨心所欲地獲取高利潤(rùn)。</p><p>　　經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的基本原理不支持這兩個(gè)預(yù)設(shè)。首先，應(yīng)當(dāng)假定，市場(chǎng)活動(dòng)的各方主體都具有正常理性，具體地說(shuō)，購(gòu)房者不是傻子，怎么可能無(wú)緣無(wú)故地讓開(kāi)發(fā)商賺取高利潤(rùn)率？其次，價(jià)格也不可能由成本來(lái)決定。如果是這樣的話，那采購(gòu)了價(jià)格最高原料的最傻的采購(gòu)經(jīng)理，豈不是可以為企業(yè)帶來(lái)最大利潤(rùn)？</p><p>　　要弄清高房?jī)r(jià)的責(zé)任，需要了解價(jià)格的形成機(jī)制。簡(jiǎn)單地說(shuō)，一棟房屋的價(jià)格既不完全是由生產(chǎn)成本決定的，也不完全是由供需決定的。從某種程度上說(shuō)，在一個(gè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性市場(chǎng)上，價(jià)格決定供需，價(jià)格也決定成本。當(dāng)然，更準(zhǔn)確地說(shuō)，價(jià)格是由交易雙方關(guān)于市場(chǎng)情勢(shì)的預(yù)期所決定的。</p><p>　　最近的局面有助于我們理解這一經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)原理。今年初，房屋市場(chǎng)恢復(fù)繁榮，房?jī)r(jià)開(kāi)始回升。開(kāi)發(fā)商購(gòu)買土地的欲望陡然提高，土地價(jià)格攀升，各地不斷出現(xiàn)“地王”。從這里看得很清楚，先有高房?jī)r(jià)，然后有了高地價(jià)。當(dāng)然，反過(guò)來(lái)，高地價(jià)又給開(kāi)發(fā)商發(fā)出一個(gè)明確的信號(hào)：房屋的價(jià)格將會(huì)上漲，準(zhǔn)備售房的開(kāi)發(fā)商于是繼續(xù)提高房屋的價(jià)格。高地價(jià)也給購(gòu)房者發(fā)出強(qiáng)烈的信號(hào)：以后的房?jī)r(jià)還要上漲，現(xiàn)在趕緊買吧。即便開(kāi)發(fā)商已提高了價(jià)格，購(gòu)買人也瘋狂入市，甚至形成搶購(gòu)的局面，開(kāi)發(fā)商因此獲得高額利潤(rùn)率，但購(gòu)房者也覺(jué)得自己賺了，因?yàn)橐院蠓績(jī)r(jià)還會(huì)漲。此后開(kāi)盤的開(kāi)發(fā)商就會(huì)再次提高價(jià)格，地價(jià)又會(huì)再度上漲。開(kāi)發(fā)商、購(gòu)房人、地方政府共同推動(dòng)形成了房?jī)r(jià)、地價(jià)輪番上漲的格局。</p><p>　　因此，高房?jī)r(jià)的根源就是最初導(dǎo)致高房?jī)r(jià)的因素。通過(guò)本輪價(jià)格上漲，可以十分清楚地看到一個(gè)關(guān)鍵因素：寬松的貨幣政策。任何時(shí)候，房屋市場(chǎng)的繁榮、尤其是畸形繁榮，都離不開(kāi)過(guò)于寬松的貨幣政策之助。大量貨幣流入經(jīng)濟(jì)體，必然首先流入房屋市場(chǎng)。</p><p>　　不過(guò)，房?jī)r(jià)漲到畸形的程度，且房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)成為第一個(gè)復(fù)蘇的市場(chǎng)，還有另一個(gè)制度性因素：土地壟斷。地方政府壟斷著商品房的土地供應(yīng)，因而，對(duì)于房?jī)r(jià)下調(diào)的任何跡象都會(huì)盡力阻止，對(duì)于房?jī)r(jià)上漲的任何跡象都表示歡迎，且傾向于放任而不采取任何抑制措施，因?yàn)榉績(jī)r(jià)上漲將推高地價(jià)，而地方政府將從中獲益。</p><p>　　所以，歸咎高房?jī)r(jià)的責(zé)任：首先，寬松的貨幣政策推動(dòng)房?jī)r(jià)進(jìn)入上漲周期，而地方政府對(duì)此傾向于不作為，甚至推波助瀾，盡可能延長(zhǎng)房?jī)r(jià)上漲周期。這樣，在絕大部分時(shí)間，房?jī)r(jià)都在上漲，而且是畸形地上漲。唯一的問(wèn)題是：這個(gè)世界上真的存在永遠(yuǎn)畸形上漲的資產(chǎn)嗎？</p><p 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